作者：Lv Runsheng, Ni Xiaoming
关键字：Taylor series; mathematical model; propagation rate; outburst prediction indexes
论文来源：会议
发表时间：2011年

The accurate test of coal seam outburst indexes is the foundation of coal and gas outburst forecast. Recurring to well-rounded uncertainty theory and technology can build the optimization method of outburst forecast indexes aiming at the testing process complexity. Firstly, uncertain factors of effecting test results were analyzed, an uncertainty mathematics model was established based on Taylor series, and effecting component of uncertainty were assessed. Afterward,extended uncertainty was calculated, the standard uncertainty of outburst indexes were synthesized by uncertainty of each effecting component using uncertainty propagation formula. The calculation shows that extended relative uncertainty of D, K, k1, △h2 are 41%, 42.5%, 32.2%, 24.7%, the uncertainty influence of outburst indexes testing results cannot be ignored in terms of forecasting outburst accuracy. The calculation method provides a kind of 

new way and tool for choosing outburst indexes in coalmine.