据印尼2月18日消息，印尼橡胶协会（Indonesia Rubber Association）的一位资深人士周六称，估计印尼在2015年将超越泰国，成为全球第一大橡胶生产国，料较之前预期提前5年实现这一目标，因该国橡胶生产能力提升且有新的橡胶树播种。
印尼橡胶协会的主席Suharto Honggokusumo称，“估计印尼的橡胶产量将在2015年超越泰国，因为印尼橡胶产量前景良好。”
“自2008年开始，印尼橡胶产量料平均每年增加5-6%，估计到2015年，印尼橡胶产量料为380万吨。”
他表示，估计泰国橡胶产量料年均增加2-3%，2015年泰国橡胶产量料为375万吨。
印尼2007年橡胶产量为280万吨，该国橡胶产量料逐步增加，因该国生产能力提升，橡胶价格走高，轮胎制造行业等对橡胶需求增加。
该高层人士称，“在2002之前，每公顷的橡胶田每年的产量要低于700公斤，2007年已经增加至每公顷979公斤，但是泰国的橡胶产量增速受限，因受天气因素和南方局势不稳等影响。全球橡胶需求前景良好，这也是橡胶价格位于高位的原因所在”
"Global demand is good, that's why the price is also good. Farmers are still happy to take care of their plantations," he said.
Indonesia, which churned out around 2.6 million tonnes of rubber in 2006, is replanting 250,000 hectares (617,800 acres) of old smallholders' rubber plantations and will add 50,000 hectares of new smallholders plantation per year until 2010.
International prices have rebounded sharply since hitting 30-year lows in 2001 after main producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia decided to curb output to push up prices.
Indonesia's tyre grade SIR20 was quoted at $1.22 per pound on Friday, up nearly 8 percent since the start of 2008.
Indonesia has been expected to overtake Thailand as the world's biggest natural rubber producer in 2020 by nearly doubling its natural rubber output to 4.12 million tonnes.
But Thailand's rubber production has been hit by erratic weather, labour shortages and separatist violence in the three provinces in the south, which produce nearly 10 percent of the 3 million tonnes of the country's annual output.
More than 2,800 people have been killed in four years of separatist insurgency.
Indonesia's rubber exports, mainly to the United States, Japan and China, were estimated at 2.4 million tonnes in 2007 but this year's exports could be smaller due to higher domestic consumption, said Honggokusumo.
"Domestic consumption is fairly big. It reached around 390,000 tonnes in 2007. In 2008, local consumption is still healthy and we may see growth of around 10 percent," he said, adding that domestic intake stood around 355,000 tonnes in 2006.
Demand from Indonesia's auto industry was strong, fed by economic growth at 6.3 percent in 2007, an 11-year high, Honggokusumo added.
Global rubber consumption is forecast to grow 2.7 percent this year after rising 5.7 percent in 2007 -- the fastest in three years on growing demand in key markets, the International Rubber Study Group earlier this month.
Global synthetic rubber consumption was estimated to have increased by 6 percent to 13.19 million tonnes in 2007, while natural rubber consumption rose by 5.4 percent to 9.71 million tonnes.
